
- The price of aluminum on the London Metal Exchange has surpassed $3,300 per ton this week and is approaching the record highs it set before the 2008 financial crisis on investor fears of lower supply.
On Thursday, the contract for delivery in three months reached 3,333 dollars a ton during the session, just 50 dollars below the 3,380 dollars it reached in July 2008, which is its historical maximum, according to the Bloomberg database.
In 2021 the price of the metal rebounded by almost 40 % and so far this year it has risen by another 15 %.
Head of research at Swiss bank Julius Baer (SIX:BAER), Carsten Menke, believes the main reason is fear of a supply shortage explained by factors ranging from China's capacity cuts due to environmental concerns to possible sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine conflict.
Additionally, high electricity prices in Europe, which since the second half of 2021 have risen steadily and set several all-time highs, have led some producers of this metal to announce production cuts.
Europe is an important destination for Russia's aluminum exports and any decision on sanctions could contribute to reducing supply, although Menke points out that this risk is already reflected in the market in view of the high prices.

In his opinion, the sanctions "could wreak havoc" on the global aluminum market and would affect not only aluminum, but also the raw materials needed for its production, such as bauxite or alumina, in the factories.
The Swiss bank's expert adds that a decline in aluminum supply may lead to further disruptions in supply chains.
As for China, Menke indicates that the situation remains unchanged from last year, when investors were already expressing alarm at the reduction in production from the Asian giant due to environmental concerns.
In August 2020, after the confinements at the beginning of the pandemic, aluminum fell below 1,500 euros per ton, from where it rebounded to around 2,400 dollars.
However, since last summer the price has risen again to coincide with the worst of the bottlenecks and supply bottlenecks, and in mid-October it exceeded US$3,200 per tonne.
News from es.investing.com
Graph from eleconomista.es